The U.S. economy will experience a U-shaped recovery and the recession will come to an end this year, a leading U.S. economist said recently in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.
RECESSION IN U.S. TO END IN 2009
Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's economist.com, said the current recession, the most serious one since the Great Depression in 1930s, will end in 2009 followed by a weak growth in 2010 and a much stronger growth in 2011-12.
According to Zandi, the recession will end this year largely due to the U.S. massive monetary and fiscal stimulus.
"The economy will come back in 2010, but it won't come roaring back next year as the still weak housing and vehicle markets and the troubled financial system will constrain the availability of credit to households and businesses," he said in a written interview.
"I do expect the U.S. economy to enjoy much stronger growth in 2011-12 as these impediments to growth fade and growth in the rest of the world improves and lifts U.S. exports," he explained.
Zandi believes that a bottom in the U.S. housing market is coming into view, but "the outlook critically depends on the success of the Obama administration's plan to help facilitate more mortgage loan modifications to quell the foreclosure crisis."
"Home sales and housing construction have stabilized and I expect house prices to stop falling by spring 2010. A meaningful improvement in the housing market will not occur until 2011," said the economist.